scenario analysis
a process in which managers conceptualize a range of plausible, logically consistent situations (scenarios) that may arise in the future and attempt to identify the implications of these for their organization and its activities. The purpose is not so much to predict the future—some of the scenarios considered may be highly unlikely—as to promote better decision making, better personnel use, and critical scrutiny of existing systems and processes, especially in terms of their ability to respond flexibly to unexpected negative events. Scenario analysis has important applications in such fields as politics, military strategy, business, ergonomics, and accident prevention.