hindsight bias

the tendency, after an event has occurred, to overestimate the extent to which the outcome could have been foreseen. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs—people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true; (b) metacognitive inputs—people may misattribute their ease of understanding an outcome to its assumed prior likelihood; and (c) motivational inputs—people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable.

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Psychology term of the day

May 8th 2024

valence–instrumentality–expectancy theory

a theory of work motivation holding that the level of effort exerted by employees will depend on a combination of three variables: (a) the expectancy of employees that effort will lead to success in the job, (b) the belief of employees that success will lead to particular outcomes (see instrumentality theory), and (c) the value of these outcomes (see valence). A numerical value can be obtained for variable (a) using the subjective probability estimates of employees, for variable (b) by measuring the correlation of performance to rewards, and for variable (c) by asking employees to rate the desirability of the rewards. The motivational force, or the amount of effort employees will exert, can then be calculated. See also path–goal theory of leadership; Porter–Lawler model of motivation. [proposed in 1964 by Canadian organizational psychologist Victor H. Vroom (1932– )]