actuarial risk assessment
a statistically calculated prediction of the likelihood that an individual will pose a threat to others or engage in a certain behavior (e.g., violence) within a given period. Unlike in a clinical risk assessment, someone conducting an actuarial risk assessment relies on data from specific, measurable variables (e.g., age, gender, prior criminal activity) that have been validated as predictors and uses mathematical analyses and formulas to calculate the probability of dangerousness or violent behavior.